Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 30.187470 33.730640 37.829361 43.000527 49.471152 57.476876 68.436750
2025-03-23 25.145839 29.537419 35.096347 42.921489 54.169208 70.754297 99.567110
2025-03-30 21.915048 26.644061 33.027013 42.799034 58.581833 86.081077 148.839020
2025-04-06 19.383980 24.120666 30.804279 41.683291 60.940496 99.792809 218.701277
2025-04-13 18.349333 23.426757 30.959674 44.145678 70.384081 135.839124 492.366195
2025-04-20 16.913914 21.925613 29.590130 43.637040 73.892803 162.818832 1141.346417
2025-04-27 15.907952 20.922142 28.818037 43.966419 79.437459 206.286859 12282.246279
2025-05-04 15.102283 20.121844 28.239069 44.495067 85.857374 271.350302 NaN
2025-05-11 14.351825 19.323705 27.540690 44.602401 91.346899 357.162785 NaN
2025-05-18 13.589716 18.434097 26.565871 43.902957 94.167721 448.024463 NaN
2025-05-25 13.036730 17.835333 26.036425 44.075419 100.157441 642.916286 NaN
2025-06-01 12.480941 17.186360 25.340197 43.719725 104.229522 918.396964 NaN
2025-06-08 11.941559 16.535970 24.593474 43.151928 107.542348 1387.929607 NaN
2025-06-15 11.456463 15.946091 23.907577 42.619832 110.945100 2411.126154 NaN
2025-06-22 11.039024 15.444852 23.345870 42.306115 115.409771 6350.562258 NaN
2025-06-29 10.570519 14.828154 22.507045 41.132099 115.041428 16386.194751 NaN
2025-07-06 10.482596 14.864960 22.958684 43.501514 136.282470 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.136732 14.425849 22.410009 42.989131 140.380186 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.887727 14.144894 22.161682 43.303330 150.877654 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.671741 13.910504 21.989099 43.815568 164.235287 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.438122 13.631436 21.698927 43.918825 175.115694 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.161312 13.260491 21.185707 43.236533 178.367335 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 8.963220 13.024820 20.947500 43.404391 191.098600 NaN NaN